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11月份AMI指数为43.8%,部分指数逆势飘红

2022-12-06 10:24:09 来源:中国农业机械流通协会 阅读量:16600 评论

导读:特约分析师张华光认为:农机市场经历了极为不平凡的2022年,这一年的变化,只有你想不到的,没有它做不到的。

  【农机网 市场行情】中国农业机械流通协会发布的2022年11月份中国农机市场景气指数(AMI)为43.8%,环比提升1.6个百分点,同比下降1.9个百分点。从环比看,6个一级指数中,除农机补贴指数、库存指数和经理人信心指数有所下降外,其余全部呈现上升趋势,其中效益指数增幅最大,为5.4个百分点。从同比看,6个一级指数中除效益指数和人气指数略有上升外,其余则呈现下降趋势,其中经理人信心指数降幅最大,为8.4个百分点。6个一级指数中,全部位于不景气区间。
 

  特约分析师张华光认为:农机市场经历了极为不平凡的2022年,这一年的变化,只有你想不到的,没有它做不到的。在如此错综复杂的大环境下,AMI也变得飘忽不定,变数与不确定性轮番在各个月度上演,多年的规律被打破。刚刚过去的11月份,本来是最无特点的一个月,也是下半年最淡的一个月,但却演绎出两个不同的结果。结果一:在我们的预料之中,譬如环比出现小幅反弹,同比小幅下降;再譬如总指数和一级指数悉数徘徊于不景气区间。结果二:在我们的预料之外,譬如二级、三级指数中的部分指数逆势飘红,有些指数竟“飘”到景气区间,上演出“冬天里的童话”。
 
  11月份AMI的基本特征
 
  其一,触底反弹,温和增长。11月份,AMI呈现给我们的最大特征环比触底反弹,小幅增长。虽然逆势增长,但依然深陷不景气泥潭。
 
  其二,三起三落,跌至冰点。本月所监测的六个一级指数中,以下两个特征表现的尤为突出:一是尽数位于不景气区间。二是环比呈现“三起三落”。“三起”是指包括销售能力指数、效益指数、人气指数在内的三个指数呈现不同程度的增长,但这种增长均是基于上月大幅度下滑基础之上,并非市场内生因素所致。“三落”是指包括农机补贴指数、库存指数和经理人信心指数在内的三个指数呈现不同程度的下跌,其中经理人信心指数以35.74%的景气度跌至冰点,不仅位于深度不景气区间,且创下35个月以来的最低值。
 
  其三,逆势上行,两指数破局。本月所监测的5个二级指数环比全线逆势上行,呈现不同程度的增长。其中,拖拉机指数、种植机械指数破茧成蝶,挺进景气区间。
 
  AMI位于景气区间的月度,其原因都是相似的;位于不景气区间的月度,却各有各的原因。形成11月不景气的原因有以下几个方面。一是农机市场淡季锁定11月份AMI的大势——位于不景气区间;而11月环比出现的小幅增长,主要基于10月份大幅度下跌形成的“洼地”,触底反弹所致;二是国三升国四成为11月景气指数变局的最大因素。它让一些指数逆势上行:拖拉机、种植机械和田间管理机械指数均出现不同程度的较大幅度攀升,田间管理机械指数虽未进入景气区间,但高达49.7%的景气度,也无限接近荣枯线。11月份是国三升国四最后一个月,也成为制造商和经销商甩国三库存的最后机会,由此决定了与此关联密切的机型出现较大幅度增长。它让另一些指数跌至冰点:经理人信心指数创下新低,意味着经理人们对已经开始的12月份不抱太大希望;三是疫情影响。在今年AMI的诸多利空因素中,疫情始终是绕不过的重要因素之一。反复延宕且愈发严峻的疫情形势,导致生产与经营均处于非正常状态,让本就清淡的市场更是雪上加霜;四是补贴驱动力减弱。本月已是补贴指数的“三连跌”,意味着驱动力位于低点。
 
  从三级指数解析细分市场
 
  本月变化最大的莫过于三级指数,上演了冰火两重天的大戏。一方面一些市场逆势攀升。大型拖拉机虽增幅较小,但连续四个月坚守于景区区间的良好业绩足以让整个行业侧目。中拖虽未进入景气区间,其高达49.8%的高景气度也表现不俗。如果说大中拖的表现亮眼,那深松机和玉米收获机的表现可谓疯狂。先有深松机,以16.8%增幅,65%的高景气度,创下月度高点;后有玉米收获机,以18.7%的环比增幅和54.2%的景气度,重回荣枯线以上。如果说上述市场的增长尚有理由,而下面两个市场增长简直就是任性甚至霸道了。一是自走轮式谷物联合收获机指数大放异彩,在本不属于自己的季节,却创下了13.9%的增幅和52.4%的景气度。二是免耕播种机,环比增幅高达21.2个百分点,景气度居然达到了63%,创下多年未遇的奇迹。
 
  另一方面,一些指数跌入冰点。譬如自走履带式谷物联合收割机,在经历的上月大幅度下跌后,本月再度下探至谷底,只剩下区区31.3%的景气度,创下了32月以来的最低值。
 
  增长的细分市场主要得益于两个方面。一是国三升国四。11月是国三升国四的最后一个月,多数企业和经销商为甩国三库存降价促销,拖拉机、玉米收获机等细分市场的快速增长。市场调查显示,一个品牌的拖拉机降价幅度高达10万元以上,为甩国三库存,也真的拼了。一些用户担心升级后涨价,提前消费,譬如深松机市场。二是不排除一些经销商“预售”国三机械的可能性。从自走轮式谷物联合收割机市场和免耕播种机市场反季节大幅度飙升即可看出其中端倪。
 
  下滑市场主要原因是市场的周期性变化,譬如自走履带式谷物联合收割机在经过多年的高速增长后,今年出现较大滑坡本在预料之中。

  12月份AMI走势判断
 
  预计12月份AMI环比、同比或出现小幅下降,滞留于不景气区间的概率较大。一、二级指数或将继续维系在不景气区间,多数指数环比会出现不同程度的下降;三级指数中绝大多数指数停留在不景气区间的概率较大。
 
  12月份最大的利空因素莫过于国三升国四对市场形成的巨大冲击。12月1日,市场开启国三升国四模式,国四机型正式登场,国三机型随之叫停,对市场需求的冲击自此开始,并将延续到明年全年,12月或将成为市场由盛转衰的拐点。国四机型的运行,对市场形成的巨大影响表现在以下几个方面:其一,升级最突出的效应是因升级导致不少用户提前购买,严重透支后市场,12月份正在此影响的覆盖下;其二,升级后的产品价格上扬已经成定局,涨价形成的市场上行压力不容小觑;其三,许多企业虽然在国四产品上做了充分准备,但国四产品的适应期依然会对近期市场产生重要影响,譬如12月份的市场。
 
  利空因素不仅限于国三升国四,下面利空因素也为我们敲响了警钟。一是从政策端分析。农机补贴呈现三大利空影响,对市场需求形成一定压制。第一,农机补贴指数已经走出“三连跌”,意味着驱动力明显减弱;第二,今年不少区域农机补贴透支,驱动力下降;第三,单台补贴额度下调,对市场信心造成一定影响。二是市场价值链分析。第一,从制造端看,生产企业或开启商务年会模式,或进入生产准备阶段,或收取应收账款,市场销售处于“休眠”状态。第二,从销售端看,经销商处理国三库存随着国四机型的运行基本停滞,清仓盘点,收取账款成为其主要工作。第三,从消费端看,12月正值农机市场淡季,农村或进入“休闲”模式,或开启生意模式,农机需求疲软。三是从疫情影响分析。近期疫情在不少区域市场持续发酵,对生产与销售均产生了一定影响。
 
  从AMI内生动力和多年形成的发展规律分析。第一,经理人信心指数环比大幅度下跌7.4个百分点,且创下35个月以来35.74%的超低景气度,折射出经理人对12月份市场信心的低预期,预示着11月份市场上行压力较大;第二,库存指数在经历了“三连跌”后,本月位于40.1%的低位,且进货总额、库存总额持续大幅度下降,经销商去库存意愿表现的较为强烈 反映出多数经销商对12月份市场不抱太大希望;第三,同比下降的判断主要基于去年较高的景气度,去年12月份52.2%的较高景气度为今年设置了较高的“门槛”;第四,从AMI近年走势分析,虽然自2017-2021年连续五年,12月环比均出现不同程度的增长,但并不能以此作为判断今年市场的依据。因为今年面临的诸多利空因素十分强烈,12月份环比下降的概率较大。
 
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