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张华光:旧市场下滑,新风口浮现

2019-07-25 08:52:39 来源:中国农业机械流通协会 作者:张颖达 阅读量:15297 评论

导读:7月24日,在河北省正定县召开的2019年全国农机流通信息工作会议上,中国农业机械流通协会行业信息部主任张华光,就当下农机市场形势进行了分析。

  【农机网 市场行情】 7月24日,在河北省正定县召开的2019年全国农机流通信息工作会议上,中国农业机械流通协会行业信息部主任张华光,就当下农机市场形势进行了分析。

 

  张华光认为,我国当下经济形势严峻,拉动经济增长的三驾马车:投资增幅创新低、消费下滑、出口增幅下滑。聚焦农机市场方面,农机主营业务收入增幅创下历史新低,农机工业利润总额回稳,亏损面增大,农机出口方面则逐渐走出低谷。
 
  因传统农机市场陷入低速常态化发展泥潭,虽然新兴市场崛起,但现阶段占比较小,难以填补传统市场留下的巨大空间。张华光表示,农机市场整体增速趋缓,市场目前已进入结构性调整期。
 
  张华光随后对各农机产品类别的市场表现进行了分析。拖拉机市场方面,张华光认为拖拉机市场刚性需求已基本丧失,市场进入存量时代。存量时代下拖拉机市场呈现出的突出特点是:,销量下降,增幅趋缓甚至负增长;第二,竞争激烈,市场进入“淘汰赛”,进入加速洗牌期;第三,终端颠覆性变化,群体成为新型购买主体,第四,需求结构调整,大型渐成市场主流;第五,区域差异增大;第六,使用功能、范围扩展,由单纯的耕作向复式作业、田间管理、园艺作业等各个方面拓展。
 
  收割机市场方面,张华光认为,因刚性需求与政策驱动力明显减弱,粮价持续低迷,消费者投资效益凸显边际递减趋势,农机补贴单台额度持续调减等原因,市场低迷或成为常态。而市场经过持续的低迷,下行空间越来越小;经济类收获机、畜牧收获机等市场份额逐年加大;大型、市场崛起,将延缓市场的下滑幅度;合作社、家庭农场、农服组织的崛起,已逐渐成为市场新型主体,这些利好因素的存在,也使得联合收割机市场大幅度下滑不太可能发生。张华光判断,转型期的收获机市场增幅趋缓已成常态,大起大落的形势将结束。市场销量将保持在26万台左右,同比增幅在5%上下。
 
  插秧机市场方面,2018年的插秧机市场经历了10余年未有的大幅度下滑,2019年,支撑市场增长的因素依然不充分,相反,利空因素却表现的十分强烈,这些因素包括:稻谷价格波动下行;投资边际效益递减;区域市场进入调整期,新市场启动有限;用户收入降低,购买力下降;投资收益降低,影响投资信心等。张华光预判:2019年插秧机全年销量将在6-7万台,同比下降15%左右。
 
  烘干机市场方面,张华光认为2019年市场上行压力依然较大,或将以盘整为主调,甚至小幅下滑,预计全销量在1.1万台左右,同比小幅下降。
 
  上帝关上一扇门的同时,就会为你打开一扇窗。在传统市场下滑之时,张华光表示,也有一些小众市场正暗流涌动,逐渐成为市场的风口,其中尤以畜牧机械市场和秸秆机械市场为甚。
 
  畜牧机械市场方面,当下正面临着良好的发展机遇和前景。政策继续成为市场的强大驱动力,种植结构调整,饮食结构的不断变化以及供给侧改革等因素都将成为推动畜牧机械市场稳定增长的重要因素。张华光判断,畜牧机械市场仍处于发展机遇期,市场的结构性调整方向——大型化趋势不可逆转。该市场2018年全年销量5.2万台,同比增长13.04%,2019年市场或将将呈现盘整特点,销量在5.6万台左右,同比增幅在7%上下。
 
  张华光指出,青饲料收获机是一个具有战略意义的市场。原因首先是政策利好——粮改饲、农机补贴等政策将成为驱动市场发展的强劲动力;其次是青饲料收获水平偏低,刚性需求强劲;再次是随着生活水平的提升,饮食结构的调整,国民对牛羊肉、奶制品的需求量将进一步提高,驱动青饲料市场的繁荣;然后是随着玉米产量过剩以及价格的波动,一些玉米种植区域开始调整种植结构,改种玉米青饲料;后是国产机械因在品质和功能上的进步,正以价格优势成为主流市场的重要支撑。张华光判断,2019年青饲料收获机市场或将持续增势,全年销量在0.5万台左右,同比增幅有望突破10%。
 
  秸秆机械市场方面,打捆机市场因刚性需求、更新需求、畜牧养殖新增拉动、政策驱动市场、补贴拉动等客观因素的存在,市场前景向好。2018年打捆机市场全年销量2.82万台左右,同比大幅增长127.42%。张华光判断,2019年打捆机市场销量将在2万台左右。秸秆还田机市场因环保趋紧、市场进入更新高峰期、惠农政策驱动、土地规模化经营等因素,正进入发展机遇期。在去年增长的基础上,2019年市场将保持稳健向上的走势,预计全年销量在8.2万台,同比增长10%左右。
 
  张华光还特别提到,喷雾机市场、棉花采摘机市场、马铃薯收获机市场亦上升势头良好,应是农机行业重点关注的焦点领域。
 
  在报告的后,张华光提示农机企业要积极发掘新的市场增长潜能,包括要充分利用好创新经营平台——互联网;要以“变”应“变”,多管齐下,用灵活的营销策略应变市场;要聚焦小众市场,拓展经营范围,为公司开发新的利润增长点;要在发展出直营店、农机连锁、农机大市场、农贸综合体、品牌专卖店等形式后,进一步加速经营模式创新;要借力社会化服务,探索增长新途径,寻找新“风口”。
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