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玉米市场持续“阵痛” 玉米收获机会“受伤”吗?

2017-01-13 13:46:54 来源:中国农机网 阅读量:22025 评论

导读:眼看还不到一个月就要过年了,这本应是件令全国人民都高兴的事儿,可此时的粮农却“望粮兴叹”,苦闷不已。因受2016年玉米临储制度改革的影响,原有粮食市场的平衡被打破,部分农户的玉米卖不出去,从而导致库存加大,价格下跌。

  【中国农机网 市场行情】眼看还不到一个月就要过年了,这本应是件令全国人民都高兴的事儿,可此时的粮农却“望粮兴叹”,苦闷不已。因受2016年玉米临储制度改革的影响,原有粮食市场的平衡被打破,部分农户的玉米卖不出去,从而导致库存加大,价格下跌。
 
  临近年关,经过前段时间集中大幅降价,东北产区近日降价脚步放缓,市场价格稳中偏弱运行。农户在变现需求与低价难售中等待市场回暖,但短期看,价格下行,压力仍是主导;   华北产区粮价跌幅明显小于东北,但用粮企业年前备货需求清淡,预计后期在东北粮价反弹行情出现前,将是华北粮价向东北下跌靠拢过程;南方销区,饲料企业备货持续,但持续的降价及供应充足使企业备货规模缩窄,加之年底集中出栏,能量原料需求下降,节前饲企备货难以提振销区市场。
 
  可见,年底玉米市场仍在持续“阵痛”中,农民陷入“手有余粮而力不足”的困境,这种情况若不加以改善,必将对2017年的玉米种植、销售及玉米机械市场产生影响。
 
  玉米价格下降加快种植结构转变
 
  “米改豆”、“粮改饲”是我国种植业结构调整的目标。2016年中国玉米产量为21955.4万吨,同比2015年总产量下降2.3%,粮食总产量“十二年连增”就此止步。除其他自然条件因素的影响之外,种植结构的转变无疑是影响粮食产量的重大原因之一。
 
  据资料显示,2016年1月1日国内玉米市场均价为1958.00元/吨,预计2016年12月31日国内玉米均价为1580元/吨,2016年全年玉米价格下跌378元/吨,降幅将接近20%。这翻降价无疑打击了玉米种植者的信心,对种植玉米呈现出观望或退缩的态度,因此,玉米种植面积减少或成未来自然趋势之一。
 
  那么,随着玉米种植面积的减少,农机界较关注的玉米收获机的需求量是否也会随之减少呢?
 
  2016年玉米收获机市场遇冷
 
  2016年受市场玉米购销价格大跌,国内玉米价格下降,国家对玉米种植结构进行调整和补贴资金严重短缺等因素影响,我国玉米收获机市场出现大幅下跌局面,虽然在第三季度的销售旺季中,部分玉米收获机企业抢抓机遇,开展多种形式演示活动,提升用户体验,使玉米收获机产销大幅下滑的局面略有好转,但2016年玉米收获机市场疲软下滑的态势已是必然。
 
  勇猛机械股份有限公司总经理表示,今年玉米机市场的表现出乎大多数业内人士的预料,粮食价格的不稳定,让包地的农民不敢包、不敢种,购机的农民也不敢轻易买了。此外,国家削减镰刀湾地区玉米种植面积、国2升国3、南方的水灾、北方的旱灾等因素叠加也对玉米机市场产生影响。
 
  尽管2016年玉米临储改革刚刚实施,但其对玉米机械的影响已经产生效果了,经过年底玉米价格带来的冲击,2017年,玉米收获机该如何前行?
 
  需求还在 未来籽粒机收是方向
 
  业界认为,玉米价格的下跌,种植面积的减少,对于玉米收获机的需求却并不会减弱,只是要求更高了。随着农业机械化的不断成熟,对农机的要求也在逐渐提高,自动化、化的农机一直都是市场稀缺。另外从玉米收获机行业细分来看,供求总量失衡的格局之下仍难以掩盖供求结构性矛盾,随着玉米作物生产全程机械化进程的不断加深,玉米籽粒收获机械或将在未来玉米收获机械行业乃至整个农业装备行业中脱颖而出。
 
  与此同时,由于我国玉米机收总体水平还比较低,市场需求依然存在,特别是针对山区丘陵地带质量可靠的玉米收获机产品依然不多,市场前景仍值得期待。
 
  眼下,玉米市场的“战斗”仍在继续,无论年底粮食好不好卖,对于玉米收获机企业来说,只要坚持进行产品结构、产品制造、销售领域及流通领域的调整,充分适应农业发展和用户对农机需求的变化,那么即使遇到“阵痛期”,也会屹立不倒,继续前行。
 

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