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上半年我国农产品市场运行总体平稳 ——农业农村部市场与信息化司有关负责人答记者问

2020-07-17 08:43:53 来源:农业农村部新闻办公室 阅读量:21707 评论

导读:今年上半年,我国农产品市场经受住了新冠肺炎疫情考验,农产品供给总体平稳有序,价格变化基本正常,但也有一些品种受市场传导、国内供需矛盾等因素叠加影响,出现阶段性较大幅度波动。

  【农机网 市场行情】今年上半年,我国农产品市场经受住了疫情考验,农产品供给总体平稳有序,价格变化基本正常,但也有一些品种受市场传导、国内供需矛盾等因素叠加影响,出现阶段性较大幅度波动。日前,农业农村部市场与信息化司有关负责人就热点问题回答了记者提问。
 
  问:今年上半年我国农产品市场供给总体情况如何?农产品供给是否有保障?
 
  答:今年以来,我国农产品供给总体充足,市场运行总体平稳,价格先涨后跌。据农业农村部监测,2月份受季节性因素和突发疫情影响,农产品批发价格200指数上涨6.7个点至135.7(以2015年为100),之后价格持续回落,6月份指数跌至112.92,环比降2.03个点,同比升3.11个点,已经明显低于1月份水平。其中,稻谷、小麦供给充足,价格短期波动后恢复正常;玉米和国产大豆供给阶段性偏紧,价格明显上涨;进口大豆量增价跌,供给基本正常;生猪生产持续加快恢复,猪肉市场供应逐步增加,受消费拉动影响,猪肉批发价格在连续15周下跌后连续6周上涨,目前已接近今年2月份的阶段性高点;蔬菜、水果等“菜篮子”产品价格呈现阶段性波动,总体符合常年季节性规律;牛羊肉价格仍在高位运行,月度走势稳中偏弱,与上年同期相比有所上涨;鸡蛋由于去年养殖利润丰厚、蛋鸡补栏量大,再加上今年受疫情影响,价格下跌幅度较大;水产品价格稳中有涨,个别品种价格同比上涨明显;棉花、食糖受消费低迷和市场下跌带动,价格总体走弱;疫情期间食用植物油餐饮消费明显下降,近期消费有所恢复,价格由弱转强。
 
  目前我国夏粮已获丰收,主要粮食作物种植面积基本稳定,稻谷、小麦库存充足,大体相当于全国人民一年的消费量,生猪产能持续恢复,“菜篮子”产品稳产保供扎实推进,再加上多数大宗农产品供给总体充足、价格低位运行,下半年保持农产品市场总体稳定的基础和条件较好,吃粮吃菜吃肉总体是有保障的。
 
  问:今年疫情爆发后,一些老百姓担心粮食不够吃,个别地方出现抢粮囤粮行为,请问我国口粮市场形势如何?粮价会大幅度上涨么?
 
  答:粮价的波动与老百姓的生活息息相关,社会关注程度很高。今年3月下旬,随着疫情防控形势好转,国内经济社会秩序恢复,口粮市场需求趋旺,加之受一些国家限制出口消息发酵影响,部分城市出现恐慌性囤购米面现象,导致国内稻谷、小麦及下游产品价格短期上涨较为明显。但总体上来看,由于连年丰产、库存充足,今年以来我国稻谷、小麦和下游米面市场受疫情影响是很有限的,价格保持基本稳定,也为疫情防控赢得了主动。4月中旬,随着国家加大政策性粮食投放,以及粮食加工企业产能利用率提高,市场供给偏紧状况明显缓解,消费逐步回归理性,口粮价格总体止涨企稳。据监测,5月份晚籼米批发均价每斤1.98元,环比跌4.8%,同比跌2.9%;粳米2.17元,环比涨1.9%,同比涨6.9%;郑州粮食批发市场普通小麦每斤1.20元,环比跌1.8%,同比跌1.3%。6月份,稻米、小麦价格略有回升,但整体依然基本平稳。从后期走势看,今年小麦再获丰收,新麦品质普遍较好;早稻面积明显恢复,秋粮播种面积基本平稳,全年丰收有基础,预计粮价仍将保持基本稳定。
 
  问:今年玉米市场价格持续上涨,国储拍卖成交率高、溢价高,请问后期玉米市场走势如何?
 
  答:今年春节后,随着国内疫情防控形势好转,玉米下游需求持续回暖,市场购销趋旺,再加上市场对今年我国玉米供给由松转紧的预期增强,玉米价格持续上涨,5月份,东北、华北主产区玉米收购价分别涨至1元、1.1元以上。自5月28日国家临储玉米竞价销售启动以来,连续5周累计成交2395万吨,成交溢价平均每吨170元,溢价率超过10%,带动玉米市场继续走强。6月份,国内玉米价格继续小幅上涨,产区批发月均价每斤1.03元,环比涨1.4%,同比涨7.2%;销区批发月均价每斤1.11元,环比涨2.9%,同比涨9.4%。
 
  与此同时,今年玉米价格受疫情蔓延及原油价格暴跌、燃料乙醇需求大幅下降等影响,呈波动下跌走势,进口玉米价格已明显低于国内。6月份,美国墨西哥湾2级黄玉米平均离岸价每吨158美元,虽然环比涨5.3%,但比疫情暴发前的2月份下跌10.7%,同比跌19.8%;进口配额内1%关税的国外玉米运抵我国南方港口的到岸税后价每斤0.80元,比国内玉米到港价低0.30元。受价差驱动,1-5月,我国玉米累计进口量277万吨,同比增16.0%。从后期走势看,随着国家继续拍卖临储玉米,以及前期拍卖玉米陆续出库,加之玉米及高粱等替代品进口增加,玉米市场供给将明显增加,价格继续上涨的空间有限,提醒市场主体保持好购销节奏,不宜持续囤粮看涨。
 
  问:中国是大豆进口大国,受疫情影响,请问我国大豆进口是否受到明显影响?国内大豆市场走势如何?
 
  答:我国进口大豆和国产大豆分别以压榨、食用为主,市场运行相对独立。从进口大豆看,疫情扩散抑制大豆需求,加之油价低迷打压生物燃料需求,大豆供需关系宽松,市场价格总体偏弱运行,客观上有利于我国大豆进口增长。6月份,美国芝加哥期货交易所大豆主力合约(2020年7月)平均收盘价每吨319美元,环比涨3.2%,比2月份跌2.1%,同比跌2.1%。据海关统计,1-5月,我国累计进口大豆3388万吨,同比增6.7%,其中5月份进口938万吨,环比增39.7%,同比增27.4%。可以说,我国大豆进口受疫情影响有限,进口数量和价格基本正常。从国产大豆看,今年受食用需求旺盛影响,国产大豆价格持续向好,近期高位企稳。据监测,6月份,黑龙江国产食用大豆平均收购价每斤2.55元,环比跌0.2%,同比涨40.7%。预计下半年我国大豆进口量增价稳;随着临储大豆进入市场,国产大豆供给预期增加,预计价格高位趋稳。
 
  问:近期猪肉价格连续上涨,请问后期走势如何?
 
  答:今年以来猪肉市场价格大体呈“V”形走势。春节以来,受产能持续增长和疫情导致消费恢复较慢两方面影响,猪肉批发市场价格持续下跌到5月底,连续下跌15周,周均价低跌至每公斤38.71元,累计下跌22.9%。6月份以来,随着餐饮业恢复经营,工厂复工,学校复课,猪肉消费明显增加,价格开始反弹,2020年第28周(7月6日-12日),猪肉批发市场均价每公斤47.73元,环比涨4.0%,同比高105.0%,环比已连续6周上涨,每公斤累计上涨约9.02元,目前价格水平已接近今年2月份50.5元的阶段性高点。
 
  从后期走势看,截至5月份,我国生猪存栏和仔猪供给量已连续4个月恢复性增长,意味着7月份以后出栏将会明显增加,猪肉市场供应将有所改善。但下半年猪肉消费逐步进入旺季,每年6-9月份猪肉价格一般都会呈现季节性上涨,今年与疫情防控形势好转后的消费增长叠加,可能会使阶段性上涨的压力偏大一些。同时,预计今年猪肉进口比去年增加100万吨,禽肉产量增加100万吨。综合考虑生猪生产恢复、猪肉进口增加、禽肉等替代品量足价稳等因素,市场供给是有保障的。
 
  问:今年春季受疫情影响,蔬菜、水果价格明显上涨,请问蔬菜、水果上半年市场形势总体如何?
 
  答:今年上半年,蔬菜、水果价格先涨后跌,波动基本符合常年规律。春节前后受疫情影响,果蔬生产、运输和销售各环节人工成本均有所增加,部分地区产销脱节严重,产区产品滞销和销区价格上涨并存。2月份,农业农村部监测的28种蔬菜全国平均批发价每公斤5.71元,环比涨10.4%,同比涨17.2%;6种水果批发均价每公斤5.72元,环比涨4.0%,同比跌4.7%。3月份后,随着疫情得到有效防控,各地物流逐步畅通,蔬菜价格呈明显的季节性下跌,连续三个月环比跌幅超过10%,菜价迅速回落至常年水平。6月份,南方持续大范围暴雨,北方河北、山东等夏菜主产区发生冰雹等强对流天气,蔬菜生产受灾导致价格上涨,农业农村部监测的28种蔬菜全国平均批发价每公斤4.03元,环比涨3.3%,同比涨5.2%;其中,17种蔬菜价格环比上涨。从往年规律看,7、8月份“夏淡”时菜价一般进入上行区间,预计今年也不例外。据国家气象中心预测,7月份东北、华北、黄淮、江淮、江汉等地降水较常年同期偏多,暴雨洪涝及强降水引发的次生灾害或对蔬菜生产、流通产生不利影响,部分地区、个别品种价格可能波动较为明显。
 
  6月份,随着各地西瓜、甜瓜、桃等多种时令水果集中上市,供应量增大,价格季节性回落,农业农村部重点监测的6种水果批发均价每公斤5.89元,环比跌6.1%,同比跌29.8%。预计后期随着时令水果供应量继续增加,水果价格将继续季节性下行。
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