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猪肉大跌价!生猪养殖行业洗牌在即

2018-05-17 08:50:13 来源:中国农机网原创 作者:林言 阅读量:43520 评论

导读:今年以来,猪肉价格持续下跌,近日有些地区甚至跌至2010年5月以来低价。农业农村部5月3日信息显示活猪均价同比下降超30%,全国500个农村集贸市场仔猪平均价格与去年同期相比下跌39.9%。此次猪肉市场动荡,部分中小养猪企业反映今年以来价格已近腰斩,生猪养殖行业处于全面亏损状态,行业洗牌是大势所趋。

  【中国农机网 编辑视角】今年以来,猪肉价格持续下跌,近日有些地区甚至跌至2010年5月以来低价。农业农村部5月3日信息显示活猪均价同比下降超30%,全国500个农村集贸市场仔猪平均价格与去年同期相比下跌39.9%。此次猪肉市场动荡,部分中小养猪企业反映今年以来价格已近腰斩,生猪养殖行业处于全面亏损状态,行业洗牌是大势所趋。
 
  为什么这次猪肉价格跌的这么厉害?专家分析,主因是生猪市场产能持续加大,但实际销量减少,春节后消费转淡和生猪产能过剩、养殖户恐慌性出栏等因素叠加,出现阶段性供过于求。有业内人士画了一幅猪价涨跌“路线图”:肉价上涨——母猪存栏增加——生猪供应增加——肉价下跌——淘汰母猪——生猪供应减少——肉价上涨。不少养猪企业和养猪大户扩能或是减产都是依据猪肉价格波动周期(即“猪周期”),但近年来跌涨周期变得不稳定、不规律,导致市场波动很大,养猪户赚大钱或是赔大钱。
 
  安徽农业大学教授、安徽省现代生猪技术体系专家殷宗俊表示,“生猪市场是一个全国大流通市场。随着我国养殖方式从家庭散养向规模养殖加速转变,养殖量快速增长,在经过2015年下半年、2016年、2017年的持续盈利后,生猪产能逐渐回升,2017年规模企业生猪出栏量激增。”但通过此次跌价我们应该看到,我国生猪产业目前存在的大问题是“大而不强”,中小企业、养殖户较多,同时产业链特征不明显,全产业链尚未形成。因此,加速行业洗牌,形成生猪养殖行业规模化、机械化、自动化,加快产业链的形成,才能提高企业抗风险能力,避免价格大起大落,保持市场稳定。
 
  规模化=机械化+自动化
 
  在农业领域,不管是种植业,还是畜牧业,机械化是根本出路。生猪养殖作为我国畜牧业重头戏,当前现实情况是,由于机械化水平偏低导致人工费用高、饲料成本高、猪场生产力低,故抗风险能力低下。像此次猪肉价格暴跌导致众多中小企业、养殖户被迫退出行业便是很好的证明。只有提高养殖机械化和自动化程度,企业才能形成规模,降低人工成本,提高生猪生产力和养殖效率。
 
  据统计,我国现有的机械化养猪人均饲养量为650头,与发达国家相比仍存在较大差距。随着扶持政策的不断加码,我国将大力推广机械化和规模化的生猪养殖。早在2016年4月,农业部印发了《全国生猪生产发展规划(2016-2020年)》,这是我国个生猪生产发展规划,确定了未来生猪生产发展目标,包括生产保持稳定略增,猪肉保持基本自给;规模比重稳步提高,规模场户成为生猪养殖主体;规模企业屠宰量占比不断提升;生猪出栏率、母猪生产效率、劳动生产率(人均饲养育肥猪数)持续提高,产业竞争力明显增强。
 
  实现全产业链才能“即大又强”
 
  生猪养殖行业实现机械化、规模化的同时面临着是实现全产业链问题。一方面,生猪养殖“半”产业链特征明显,养殖、屠宰、冷链物流、深加工等环节仍然割裂,例如,目前运输仍以活体运输为主,冷链物流并不普及,正说明国内生猪产业链还远未形成。相信在行业自动化、规模化发展下,“饲料原料-饲料-养殖-肉品-熟品”的全产业链也将逐步形成,进而促进农产品出口业发展,推动我国从生猪养殖大国走向养殖强国。
 
  另一方面,乡村振兴战略提出要加强农业面源污染防治,推进畜禽粪污处理,开展农业绿色发展行动。针对养殖产业末端环节——生猪养殖产生的粪污问题,养殖场可改进养殖工艺,建设完善粪污收集储存设施和小型厌氧处理设施;可在田间地头建设储粪池和输送管网,打通粪肥还田“后一公里”;同时立足农村能源革命的总体要求,推动以畜禽粪污为主要原料的能源化、规模化、专业化沼气工程建设,促进农村能源发展,进而促进环境保护与经济协调发展。
 
  本文由中国农机网(www.nongjx.com)原创,转载请注明出处。
 
  部分资料来源:前瞻产业研究院,若有侵权或异议请联系我们。
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